Much has changed since October 4 when the Rockland County Times placed odds on who is most likely to run for county executive in 2013.
After reading the Rockland County Times article, County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef decided to announce he was not in it. Since then the very hot rumor has been that previous ‘medium to long shot’ Legislator Ilan Schoenberger (D-New Square), chair of the Budget and Finance Committe of the Rockland County Legislature and the most influential of all county legislators, will indeed be running.
Not only is he rumored to be running, but Schoenberger is less than thrilled with Spring Valley Justice and former County Legislator David Fried’s supposed interest in the position, and thus he will be pressuring Fried not to run. For this reason we are dropping Fried down to 1:1 as a potential candidate.
Schoenberger and Fried both have the same base in Ramapo and there is a chance Fried will think better of running. If he does run, Fried would have to give up his judgeship in Spring Valley.
With Vanderhoef out of the picture, the odds of Clarkstown Councilman Frank Borelli running move higher, and we have scored him at 3:1.
Assemblyman Kenneth Zebrowski remains a solid 5:2. The Rockland County Times has moved Senator David Carlucci’s odds up to 8:1, because after two-plus years of working for his political boss Senator Jeff Klein, Carlucci might begin to feel his oats and want to run for a “boss” position of his own, one that pays considerably better and which could expand his visibility if he wants to run for Congress someday.
Our sources say Clarkstown Supervisor Alex Gromack is comfortable in his gig, which actually pays more than county executive, so we are moving his odds down. We also cannot see Ramapo Supervisor Christopher St. Lawrence running against Legislator Ilan Schoenberger, as they both rely on the same base in Ramapo and have long been political allies, so his odds have been knocked down.
In his heart, St. Lawrence definitely wants to run, but that does not mean he will have the political opportunity to do so.
Legislator Ed Day (R-New City) is still the surest thing in the race; he has ample community support and the Republican field is mostly cleared out for him. Republican Clarkstown Councilman Frank Borelli may run against him or he may even run unopposed. We have yet to hear any other names on the GOP side that are likely to run aside from these two men.
ODDS TO RUN FOR COUNTY EXECUTIVE IN 2013 (Not win, just run)
County Legislator Ed Day — 1:5
County Legislator Ilan Schoenberger —- 1:5
Spring Valley Judge David Fried —- 1:1
Assemblyman Kenneth Zebrowski — 5:2
Clarkstown Councilman Frank Borelli — 3:1
Field (candidate of established reputation not listed here) — 3:1
Ramapo Supervisor Christopher St. Lawrence — 5:1
State Senator David Carlucci — 8:1
County Clerk Paul Piperato — 15:1
Assemblywoman Ellen Jaffee — 15:1
County Legislator Michael Grant — 15:1
Clarkstown Supervisor Alex Gromack — 25:1