From AccuWeather Global Weather Center
AccuWeather reports as July draws to a close, a storm system swinging up from the Deep South will bring downpours to the northeastern U.S. and break the back of an extended heat wave.
Downpours will extend northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Thursday night. Locally gusty thunderstorms will erupt along with the drenching downpours from parts of Virginia to southern New Jersey during this time.
From Thursday night into Sunday, there is the potential for enough rain to ease abnormally dry and drought conditions.
Cloud cover and downpours associated with the storm system will cause high temperatures to trend from the 90s F to the 80s in most locations.
The storm will take a general path from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast to the Tennessee Valley, across the central Appalachians then off the New England coast.
“The exact track of the storm system will be a challenge to predict,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
At this time, the most likely locations for heavy rainfall will extend from parts of Kentucky to southern portions of Indiana and Ohio, much of West Virginia, northern and western Virginia, northern Maryland, central and southern Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, southeastern New York state and southern New England.
Within this swath, there is the potential for a general 1-2 inches of rain with localized amounts of 3-4 inches over the span of a few days. Despite the dry conditions in part of this swath, some locations could experience flash and urban flooding.
The core of the heaviest rain could shift farther north or south, depending on the track of the storm.
The dryness in the Northeast has caused Rockland County to issue a mandatory water restriction directive. The weekend rains may make that directive short-lived.