DOLLARS AND SEN$E: Trump vs. Clinton – What to expect from the market

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BY CHRIS HANLY

INVESTMENT CONSULTANT, GARY GOLDBERG FINANCIAL SERVICES

Christopher Hanly pic (2)This year’s election cycle has certainly been contentious. Both leading candidates have die-hard supporters as well as high un-favorability ratings, which is causing a tremendously high level of anxiety amongst many investors who fear apocalyptic scenarios if the “other” candidate wins. While such feverish emotions are understandable, it is critical that investors don’t let their feelings cause them to make rash or foolish investment decisions. I assure you, no matter what the outcome on November 6th, the earth will keep rotating on its axis, the sun will still rise in the east and the U.S. economy will continue to function. However, given the polarized environment, abnormal market volatility is plausible and with this comes a potential opportunity.

First the facts: Historically, since 1960, the U.S. stock market has had a positive return during Presidential election years 82% of the time – a pretty good track record if you ask me. Secondly, markets prefer a split bill – i.e. one party that controls the White House and another that controls congress. Alternatively, a split congress – one party controls the Senate the other the House, has also been met favorably by markets in past years. In other words, markets and investors favor a balance of power and an environment where one side cannot dominate the agenda.

As November and election day approach, and polls likely continue to reflect a close race, expect rhetoric to sharpen, with one side claiming that there will be disaster for the economy if the other side is elected. And while the headlines will be spectacular and at times frightening, what investors should focus on is economic data – both domestic and global. Given the current slow-growth, low-interest rate environment and economic uncertainty around the world, slight improvements or deterioration in U.S. data can have a profound effect. After all, the combination of a weak May jobs report and the mere possibility of Brexit caused the Federal Reserve to push off their June interest rate hike and warn that the timing of future hikes is uncertain. As money managers, we will remain focused on manufacturing data, housing prices, monetary policy outlook and of course, corporate earnings.

The second quarter earnings season kicks off in early July and will be a key driver of market returns in the third quarter. Historically, July and August have been challenging months for stock investors; an environment that could well reoccur this summer. However, there are things investors can do now, to dampen the summer doldrums’ and reduce the expected impact of this year’s election cycle volatility. Over time, dividends have accounted for nearly half of the S&P 500’s total return. The compounding of dividends has a profound long-term impact on your investment. And in the short-term, the payment of the dividend provides a relative safe-haven from downside volatility, especially when investors focus on companies who have a track record of raising their dividends. But be careful, in this tepid environment, making sure that the company’s balance sheet and income statement are solid is critical, or you might find yourself in trouble.

Christopher Hanly is an investment consultant with Gary Goldberg Financial Services in Suffern and can be reached at (845) 368-2907 or chris.hanly@garygoldberg.com.

 

 

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